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最好用的时时彩软件app:Buy 10 billion more 8 billion days in this morning! The Hong Kong Capital Security Bureau has been fighting hard and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has just stated its position!

时间:2018/4/19 18:26:09  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: At the time of the Sino-US trade war, a currency war is taking place in Hong Kong. In the early morning of April 19th, the Hong Kong Moneta...

At the time of the Sino-US trade war, a currency war is taking place in Hong Kong. In the early morning of April 19th, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought a further HK$10.17 billion in the market as the Hong Kong dollar triggered a 7.85 level exchange guarantee.

Since last Thursday (April 12th), in just 8 days, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has entered the market for more than 10 times, accumulatively buying 51.313 billion Hong Kong dollars to defend the exchange rate stability. With the intervention of the HKMA, the capital flow was tightened, Hong Kong bank interbank disbursement interest rate (Hibor) rose for several consecutive days.

The vice president of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said that the banking system was operating normally and did not see any significant short-selling of Hong Kong dollar activity. The outflow of 50 billion Hong Kong dollars is not too large, and it is confident in the exchange rate system.

The HKMA has madly bought more than HK$50 billion

According to statistics, since the first purchase of the Hong Kong dollar on April 12, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has successively taken 13 shots in 8 days and purchased over HK$50 billion.


On the evening of April 12, the Hong Kong dollar fell to 7.85 against the U.S. dollar, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority entered the market and bought HK$816 million. This was the first operation since the establishment of the bilateral exchange guarantee in 2005 by the HKMA.

In the early morning of April 13, the HKMA once again bought HK$2.442 billion. However, on the evening of the same day, the Hong Kong dollar once again touched the 7.85 exchange rate guarantee for the weak, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$3.038 billion for maintaining the linked exchange rate system.

In the early morning of April 14, the HKMA repurchased HK$3.368 billion. On the afternoon of April 16, it bought HK$3,587 million this time, and six times total purchases amounted to HK$19,021 million.

On April 17, for the first time, the HKMA undertook a Hong Kong dollar offer at 3 degrees in one trading day, for a total of HK$15.348 billion.

In the early morning of April 18, the HKMA entered the market twice, buying a total of HK$5.101 billion; and buying HK$4.318 billion again in the evening.

This morning, the HKMA entered the market twice in the New York foreign exchange market. The latest payment was HK$10.173 billion, together with HK$3.14 billion bought at about 4:00 this morning. It received HK$13.313 billion for two times

From April 12 to April 7. Today, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority entered the market 13 degrees in total and bought HK$50 billion. The balance of the banking system will fall to HK$128.52 billion this Friday. HK

is expected to continue to maintain the 7.85 level

HKMA spokesman reiterated on April 17, if the active control in order to enhance the HKMA HK $ interest rates, may lead to capital flow into the Hong Kong dollar, offset by rising utility rates . At the same time, it is emphasized that if the bureau takes an active interest rate control operation, it will easily cause the market to doubt the determination and will of Hong Kong to abide by the linked exchange rate. The Hong Kong dollar interest rate has actually risen slowly since 2015, but it is only a relatively slow rise in interest rates. However, widening interest rate spreads will cause incentives for carry trades and weaken the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. This is also the reason for the recent weakening of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate and triggering weaker parties. The reason for the exchange guarantee is that there has been an increase in carry activity.


Zhou Hao, senior commercial economist at Commerzbank in Germany, said that the Hong Kong dollar’s ??delay has not been strong, mainly because Hong Kong’s interbank lending rate (Hibor) remained low, which was mainly due to weak demand for Hong Kong dollar loans. "The HKMA has always preferred 'non-interventionism' and 'passive intervention' is mainly aimed at defending the 7.85 point and allowing financial institutions to act cautiously. Therefore, the Hong Kong dollar is unlikely to appreciate substantially. Hong Kong dollar is expected to remain at 7.85 for a long time to come. The level was.”

With the intervention of the HKMA, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) rose in a row. The three-month Hong Kong HIBOR rose to 1.3207% yesterday, the highest since December 27 and accumulated since April 12. It rose 13.87 basis points, nearly 14BP.

Overnight the Hong Kong dollar HIBOR rose 4 consecutive days to 0.1979%. It only divided yesterday and fell to 0.15466%. The one-year Hong Kong dollar HIBOR also continued to rise, rising to 2.127560% and continuing its recent 10-year high.


As the Hong Kong dollar HIBOR as a whole has risen, the spread between it and LIBOR has gradually narrowed, and the arbitrage space is gradually shrinking. Taking the three-month US LIBOR as an example, it rose by 66 basis points from 1.69% at the end of last year to the current level of about 2.36%, and the three-month HIBOR has just returned to 1.3%, which is in line with last year's level. The spread between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar exceeds 100 basis points, so investors in the market continue to sell HK dollars and buy US dollars for arbitrage transactions. At present, the spreads between the two have been repaired a lot, but they still have a good margin.

It is clear that the "pumping" operation of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will continue for some time before it can significantly raise the HIBOR, thereby narrowing interest rates and reversing the trend of the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar. Merrill Lynch Bank of America said in a report that it is expected that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will purchase 80 billion Hong Kong dollars from the market within the next two months in order to promote a substantial uplift of the HIBOR by stabilizing interest rates and stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.

Concern for decoupling, many institutions analyst said that the probability is minimal, for Hong Kong as a small, open area, linked to the dollar's linked exchange rate system is still the most appropriate, but short-term concerns may affect market sentiment. "Based on more than $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves , and two crisis disposal experiences in 1998 and 2008, Hong Kong monetary authorities have the ability to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate forecast." Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC, said that by strengthening the region In the long-term linkage, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate system may gradually upgrade from a single peg to the US dollar model to a “dual-core model” (penetrating USD+RMB) or a “multiple model” (gazing at a basket of currencies).

The ultra-low interest rate environment is not sustainable

"According to the existing mechanism, when the Hong Kong dollar is guaranteed by the 7.85 weak side, if there is a bank willing to absorb selling at this level, the HKMA will not need to sell the intervention. But now there is no market With sufficient buying, the HKMA needs to continue to buy Hong Kong dollars, reduce bank balances, and thereby boost Hong Kong dollar interest rates,” said a foreign-exchange trader at a foreign-funded institution in Hong Kong.

One-year Hong Kong dollar interest rate swaps have risen to 1.88% on the market, setting a new high in recent years. This means that investors expect that the Hong Kong dollar interest rate will gradually increase and are willing to pay higher costs to convert floating-rate loans into fixed-rate loans. The above traders predicted that after Hong Kong bank balances fell below HK$100 billion, the cost of bank wholesale funds increased significantly before they could consider adjusting the prime rate.

On April 15th, the Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo pointed out in his blog that the “four steps” that emerged from the design of the linked exchange rate mechanism: Outflow of funds, shrinking balances, rising interest rates, and exchange rate stability are completely within the design of the mechanism. The normal operation. The market does not need to worry too much about Hong Kong dollar escaping. The Hong Kong SAR government has sufficient financial resources to cope with capital outflows.

According to Chen Maobo, the Hong Kong dollar base currency is now about 1.7 trillion, and all US dollar assets support it, providing a great buffer for capital outflows. He urged the public to adopt a pragmatic and prudent attitude when borrowing money. We should not expect the ultra-low interest rate environment to continue unabated.

President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chen Delin has stated publicly that he will maintain the external purchasing power of the Hong Kong dollar through the linked exchange rate system with the United States dollar to maintain the confidence of the public and international investors in the stability of the Hong Kong dollar. In the future, we must continue to maintain a strong foreign exchange fund, which is the last line of defense to safeguard Hong Kong’s financial security. Hong Kong must also continue to upgrade its risk management requirements and ensure that it can maintain its financial stability when external shocks are encountered. In the past few years, many counter-cyclical measures have been launched against bank mortgage business, which is to prevent excessive banking system risks as much as possible.

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